Lunedì, 28 Dicembre 2015 19:46

Accordo di Parigi sul clima: impegno o illusione

Scritto da Gerardo

Dall’amico Luigi De Paoli riceviamo una riflessione informata in merito alla conferenza sul clima che si è tenuta a Parigi.
Con l'augurio che il NATALE 2015 coincida con la "nascita" di una mobilitazione collettiva per salvaguardare la Nostra Casa comune.
[PS. Ci scusiamo per il ritardo di pubblicazione, dovuto a un black-out tecnico del sito nei giorni di Natale]

Accordo di Parigi sul clima: impegno o illusione?

“Il testo dell’accordo di Parigi pone le fondamenta per affrontare sul serio la crisi climatica che affligge il pianeta. Si va in modo irreversibile verso un futuro libero da fossili ma è insufficiente", dichiara il presidente di Legambiente Vittorio Cogliati Dezza.
Nell'accordo i governi si pongono come obiettivo di lungo termine di contenere il surriscaldamento del pianeta ben al di sotto dei 2 gradi e di mettere in atto tutti gli sforzi possibili per non superare 1.5 gradi, in modo da ridurre gli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici già in corso sulle comunità vulnerabili dei paesi poveri. “Tuttavia - prosegue Cogliati Dezza - gli impegni già annunciati alla vigilia della COP, secondo le prime valutazioni, se rigorosamente attuati sono sufficienti a ridurre soltanto di un grado circa il trend attuale di crescita delle emissioni di gas-serra, con una traiettoria di aumento della temperatura globale che si attesta verso i 2.7- 3°C. Non consentono, quindi, di contenere il riscaldamento del pianeta ben al di sotto della soglia critica dei 2°C, e ancor meno rispetto al limite di 1.5°C.
Andare oltre questa soglia scatenerebbe un cambiamento climatico fuori controllo: non si innalzerebbe soltanto il livello del mare, ma l’acidificazione degli oceani si intensificherebbe minacciando la vita marina e tutte le barriere coralline. Le foreste morirebbero a causa della siccità.

È cruciale, pertanto, una revisione di questi impegni non oltre il 2020 e purtroppo l'accordo lo prevede solo su base volontaria,rimandando al 2023 la prima verifica globale degli impegni. E’ invece urgente farlo prima del gennaio 2021, quando il nuovo accordo sarà operativo.

L’utilità non c’è, triste a dirsi ma è così. L’utilità dell’accordo siglato al summit sul clima di Parigi, semplicemente, non esiste. E ci sono alcuni punti che rappresentano vere assurdità. Non è più possibile affermare che questa intesa è “la migliore possibile” (Antonio Lumicisi).

Ciò che manca è una valutazione dell’effettiva utilità di tale accordo ai fini della lotta ai cambiamenti climatici, almeno così come considerata necessaria e leggendo il testo ci si accorge, purtroppo, che questa utilità non c’è, o almeno non è evidente. Così come salta agli occhi l’enorme assurdità di mettere sullo stesso piano alcuni “diritti”, da una parte quelli dei Paesi più poveri e quindi più vulnerabili ai cambiamenti climatici e, dall’altra, quelli dei Paesi produttori di combustibili fossili, ai quali è stato concesso di acquisire ulteriore tempo per una loro diversificazione economica (offerta energetica); laddove è evidente che proprio questi Paesi avrebbero avuto tutti gli interessi ad investire i loro proventi su nuove forme di energia sostenibile.
I tre punti principali dell’Accordo richiedono ai Paesi che lo sottoscrivono, la cui firma ufficiale dovrà essere posta a New York a partire dal 22 aprile 2016 ed entro un anno da quella data:
- di raggiungere il picco delle emissioni di gas serra il più presto possibile, facendo in modo che vi sia un equilibrio tra le emissioni e gli assorbimenti di gas serra dal 2050 in poi e mantenere quindi l’aumento della temperatura globale ben al di sotto dei 2°C e di sforzarsi al massimo per avvicinarsi a 1,5°C;
- di analizzare i risultati raggiunti ogni cinque anni;
- di finanziare con 100 miliardi di dollari all’anno da qui al 2020 azioni per il clima a beneficio dei Paesi in Via di Sviluppo, con l’impegno a continuare tale finanziamento anche dopo il 2020.
Di “giuridicamente vincolante” c’è solo il fatto di presentare un obiettivo di riduzione delle emissioni (attenzione, solo “presentare” un obiettivo di riduzione, a titolo volontario quindi, senza alcun obbligo a rispettarlo, cioè senza alcuno strumento sanzionatorio in caso di non raggiungimento) e i progressi raggiunti ogni cinque anni, sapendo bene che cinque anni sono un lasso di tempo abbastanza lungo per continuare a fare danni, soprattutto con l’inazione. Gli obiettivi attualmente presentati dai Governi (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions - INDCs) sono totalmente insufficienti per rispondere al primo punto sopra menzionato, come era ben evidente ai negoziatori durante la COP21.
Gli impegni dei singoli Paesi in merito alla riduzione delle emissioni non hanno valore vincolante, essendo volontari, ma ogni entità nazionale ha l’obbligo di stabilirne uno e valutarne l’eventuale aggiustamento ogni cinque anni. L’articolo 13 dell’accordo prevede il meccanismo MRV (Monitoring, reporting and verification) che si applicherà a tutti i firmatari. Anche senza sanzioni, i Paesi trasgressori dovranno comunque rispondere del mancato raggiungimento degli obiettivi alla comunità internazionale e all’opinione pubblica.
Uno dei nodi principali della COP21 erano i diversi livelli di sviluppo dei Paesi chiamati a intervenire per rallentare i cambiamenti climatici. Come si è risolta questa discrepanza? Con una diversa richiesta di impegno: ai Paesi sviluppati vengono richiesti “obiettivi di riduzione”, ai paesi in via di sviluppo “sforzi di mitigazione”.
Inoltre l’accordo prevede un fondo di investimento misto (pubblico e privato) di 100 miliardi di dollari l’anno, a partire dal 2020, che supporti i Paesi a basso reddito a proteggersi dalle minacce legate al cambiamento climatico globale.
Dal punto di vista finanziario, 100 miliardi all’anno fino al 2020 sono poca cosa rispetto agli interessi che muovono i combustibili fossili ma qui il problema è che non si capisce chi alimenterà queste risorse finanziarie, chi ne beneficerà concretamente (si ricorda che nella dizione “Paesi in Via di Sviluppo” a volte, a seconda dei contesti, troviamo ancora Paesi come la Cina, l’India, il Messico) e quali strumenti finanziari saranno effettivamente messi a disposizione (donazioni, prestiti, ecc.).
Il fatto che eminenti scienziati si siano espressi in questi giorni in maniera critica sull’accordo, mettendo in risalto la vaghezza dei suoi contenuti, stride con l’univoco clamore del “successo” raggiunto a Parigi.
Per James Hansen, uno dei primi scienziati a lanciare l’allerta clima, l’accordo è una “frode” e le direttive siglate dai leader mondiali sono “solo parole e promesse, non c'è alcuna azione concreta”.
Per la scrittrice Naomi Klein: “L’accordo non è sufficiente a tenerci al sicuro, anzi, sarà straordinariamente pericoloso. I paesi ricchi hanno fissato obiettivi inadeguati, che potrebbero far salire le temperature globali di 3 o 4 gradi Celsius, ossia molto di più della soglia di 2°C, che secondo gli scienziati causerebbe vere catastrofi climatiche. L’accordo passa come uno schiacciasassi su cruciali linee rosse fissate dalla scienza, dalla giustizia e dalla legalità”.

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